Methodological Problems of Modelling Historical Causality

Abstract

The article deals with the problem of the existence of the laws of history. The task of history, as of all science, is not only to establish the facts with certainty, but also to explain the causes of events. Models of the historical process are verified by facts, but the significance of the event is also dependent of model. This leads to a multiplicity of ontologies of history. Different epistemic types of historical causality based on the same basis of empirical evidence are permissible. As a re­sult of the analysis of possible forms of determinism, it is established that the problem of the existence of historical regularities is solvable in a wider class of models than models of mathematical natural science. Models of physical pro­cesses assume the presence of invariants of motion (conservation laws), while the form of existence of models of the historical process is fundamentally different and is different types of constraint on management decisions. The multiplicity of ontologies leads to a different level of determinism of this management constrain. This approach makes it possible to reconcile human freedom of will with the prin­ciple of causality, while avoiding the illusory notions of Laplace’s determinism in history.